By Canute Tangwa (published May 5, 2006)
Nigerian President, Olusegun Obasanjo knows more than all the anti-third term mandate drum beaters how to relinquish power. History and a track record are on his side: in 1979 he stepped down, not aside like the maradona of Nigerian politics (Ibrahim Babangida) and handed power to a Shehu Shagari-led government that made a mess of governance until Generals Muhammadu Buhari and Tunde Idiagbon marched in brandishing the War Against Indiscipline (WAI) baton.
They were short-circuited by Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, infamous not only for annulling (he insists on cancelling) the June 12, 1993 presidential election but for foisting on a vibrant and dynamic people a despot, the late Gen. Sani Abacha, who cared less about national and international opinion when he hanged conscience and vision, Ken Saro-Wiwa and hounded into exile an international patrimony like nobel laureate, Wole Soyinka. The Babangida years were dramatic and casted a blight: 419 ran amok, letter-bombing of the celebrated Dele Giwa, scheduling and rescheduling of transition to civil rule calendar, squandering of oil wealth, rampant corruption, drug trafficking and so on.
General Yakubu Jack Gowon recently cautioned Obasanjo against a third term. Apparently, Gowon is now grey with wisdom. He speaks with hindsight for it was his inability to draw up a clear-cut handing over programme to an elected civilian government that Generals Murtala Muhammed, Olusegun Obasanjo and Shehu Musa Yar’adua overthrew him in a bloodless coup in 1975.
Today, it is settled in every quarter that Obasanjo should know better. However, Obasanjo insists, though couched in diplomatic double-speak, that a third term is not on the cards. On the other hand, he talks of his vision for Nigeria. His vision borders on religious fervour since he often talks of God’s plan or will when quizzed, particularly during his latest visit to the USA, on the third term agenda. Seemingly, Obasanjo looks like the Moses who would deliver Nigeria financially and economically.
He has succeeded in writing off Nigeria’s huge external debt, over 35 billion dollars and constituted a huge foreign reserve from the oil windfall; a feat! This is thanks to a crack team led by the female Minister of Finance, Ngozi Okonjo Iweala. His government has succeeded to give Nigeria a huge dose of international respectability. Obasanjo’s fight against corruption through the corruption watchdog the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, have received plaudits though critics decry selective crackdown. However, much still has to be done and Obasanjo apparently wants Nigerians to give him another mandate to finish the job.
However, there is a constitutional hitch; the constitution provides only for a two term mandate. His party, the PDP is pushing for constitutional reforms that include an extension of the presidential mandate. The Nigerian political and civil classes have risen like one man to call Obasanjo and his people to order. However, Obasanjo like Margaret Thatcher does not want some other person to undo his job.
What is wrong with tinkering with the constitution? It would set a bad precedence. For sometime, constitutional fiddling has been the preserve of a small number of African States like Gabon, Chad, Guinea, Togo and Tunisia. Such a move by the most populous State in Africa would have a nauseating ripple effect in Africa. It may lead to political instability in Nigeria. This would constitute a security risk to the Gulf of Guinea, West and Central African regions. The financial and economic consequences would be disastrous. The price of oil now stands at 75 dollars per barrel. In the event of a conflagration, prices would skyrocket thereby creating financial and economic imbalances. The volatile Gulf of Guinea may witness a rise in nationalisms, proliferation of small arms and trafficking.
Why does Obasanjo want to go against the current when contemporaries like Thabo Mbeki are unequivocal? The answer is the man Obasanjo. President Obasanjo has had more than one decisive encounter with history. It was under his watch that the Biafran Army surrendered in 1970. He was fighting for a united Nigeria. In 1979, he was the first military ruler to voluntarily hand over power to an elected civilian government. Of late, he is a fervent born again Christian. Pentecostals are adepts at visions. Apparently, since there can be only one Nelson Mandela, there can only be one Obasanjo who can save Nigeria from the scourge of poverty and corruption.
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